Una Reforma inútil / Luis Oberto

Entrevista a el Dr. Luis Henrique Oberto en su oficina en Sabana Grande Foto: Enio Perdomo 031003

Luis Enrique Oberto.

La reconversión monetaria decretada resultará totalmente inútil para todos los ciudadanos

Poco importa el número de unidades requeridas de una moneda para adquirir una unidad de otra moneda utilizada como base del intercambio financiero o comercial internacional, por ejemplo: el dólar o el euro. Lo que sí tiene importancia es por cuánto tiempo esa relación de cambio se mantiene y cuan libre es el mercado monetario del país de dicha moneda. Todo lo demás es cuento, visto que a la hora de usarla para adquirir una moneda de reserva queda puesto en evidencia su verdadero valor. No basta con llamar “fuerte” a una moneda para que lo sea.
Respaldo

Una moneda para ser fuerte debe estar respaldada por un volumen de reservas que guarde relación con la cuantía emitida de ella, un intercambio comercial y de capitales que conlleve la existencia de una balanza de pagos del país equilibrada o con superávit, y una producción importante y eficiente de servicios y bienes consumidos por el país de esa moneda y mercados externos. Contribuye a debilitarla, la ausencia de controles institucionales reales del gasto y del endeudamiento públicos y del uso de las reservas internacionales, la falta de políticas antiinflacionarias efectivas -no decretos- y la merma de las facultades y la independencia del órgano responsable de velar por su fortaleza.

Por ello, salvo para aparentar lo que no hay el propósito de hacer y tener pie para discursos sobre la materia que nada tendrán que ver con la realidad, la reforma (reconversión) monetaria que ha sido decretada en nuestro país resultará totalmente inútil para todos los ciudadanos y fuente de incomodidades diversas, como la reducción sensible de la circulación de algunos billetes, como ya está ocurriendo, bien por falta de su reposición o su retiro para ser guardados como recuerdo o incorporarlos a colecciones numismáticas.
Los costos

A los costos a fondo perdido que dicha reforma conlleva para toda la sociedad, los ciudadanos deberán añadir los generados por las formalidades a cumplir vinculadas con la serie de pasos a dar y las decisiones a tomar para reconvertir las cuentas y validar los compromisos económico-financieros de las variadas naturalezas que entre las personas, con las empresas y entre estas, se registran a diario.

Cuando tales cosas no se tienen en cuenta, como sucedió en el siglo XX en los países de la Europa oriental sometidos al totalitarismo comunista soviético, las monedas nacionales no sirven ni para pagar los gastos de quienes les visitan, que deben cancelarlos con monedas fuertes a exigencia oficial. Entonces, ¿para qué la reforma? Eso se debe dilucidar.

oberto

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